Reference Points

100 surgeries; 90 survive, 68 survive over one year, 34 live longer than five years

100 radiation therapies; all survive tx, 77 survive one year and 22 survive past 5 years

Russo, Schoemaker, Decision Traps, 1989, pg 26

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An identical group of physicians is offered the same set of choices, reframed.

Would you still make the choice you made before?

Given the identical nature of the data, trained, or even untrained but thoughtful decision makers should reach the same conclusion.