Slide 28 of 62
Notes:
This belief in local representativeness is illustrated here in an example modified from one in Kahnemann’s book.
Ask the group to answer the question.
A common answer is that the average will be the same as it is for the whole population. That is, 100. We aren’t going to be tricked by the old gambler’s fallacy and believe that the outcome remembers the past. You know the gambler’s fallacy -- after fo
