Table of Contents
Risk-Taking
Eli Lilly and Company
Alpheus Bingham
21 July 2000
Risk, per Rupp Insurance Glossary
Risk, per Gommes, SD Dimensions
Risk, per Fleet Online Banking
Risk, per Prehospital and Disaster Medicine
Risk, per www.stl.nps.navy.mil/~josmund/SWmgmt9/sld002.htm
Competing Conceptions of Risk, Paul Thompson and Wesley Dean, Texas A&M
Risk-Taking
Risk-Taking
Dealing with uncertainty
How does one imagine the future?
Stuff may ride on a carrier wave...
What's stuff ?
Enough math...
Mean Management
Variance Management
Skewness Management
Cognitive Traps
Reference Points
Reference Points
Reference Points, 167 MD, NEJM
Yardsticks
Yardsticks, ~500 managers
Confidence
Overconfidence, n秈, ə% 0,1 wrong
Descriptors
Sampling Evidence
Local Representativeness
Local Representativeness
Anchors
Anchors
Anchors
Anchors, irrelevant
A Strategy for playing the Indiana Lottery
Taking credit,
taking blame·
Taking stands
Experience is mandatory; learning is optional
Claiming credit or Îexplainingâ
Claiming credit or Îexplainingâ
Randomness
Our Innate Probabilistic Skill
Avoiding Îblameâ
On Leadership: Fear of Failure
Risk-Taking at Lilly
Colin Powell: Asking Permission
Colin Powell: Go with your gut
On Leadership: Fear of Failure
On Leadership: Exploit Ambiguity and Discontinuity
Alfred Hitchcock
On Leadership: Resolve and Decisiveness
Indecisiveness
Either Oars
Leading others to Risk
Be WRONG!
Ways of being wrong
Alpha and Beta Errors
Alpha-Beta Leadership
Risk-Taking
Understanding Uncertainty
Cognitive Traps
Experience is mandatory;
learning is optional
Leadership and Taking Stands
On Leadership: Place Your Bets |